Answering the question in the title is unlikely to be difficult for anyone - in most cases, the team that gets the lead wins the match. Unlike other collective sports such as basketball, volleyball, rugby, handball, in which the number of points or goals reaches double digits (and in basketball - thriple digits), on the green terrain we see on average between two and three goals per game. That is enough to explain how important the first goal in the game is.
Of course, we will not be satisfied with verbal findings, but will support them with statistics. No one can argue against the numbers.
Spain, La Liga, 2018-19
The following statistical sample, which we will use to prove the significance of the first goal scored, shows the 2018-19 season in the Spanish Primera Division. There were 27 zero draws registered in this championship - we take them out and there are 353 games left in which there is at least one goal scored.
230 of these meetings were won by the team that scored the first goal, regardless of when it happened within the 90 minutes. This means that during last season in La Liga, nearly 2/3 of the cases (65%) the team that scored the first goal gets the three points. In 24 out of the 38 rounds, more than half of the 10 games in one stage ended with a win for teams that were the first to score. In two rounds we have an example of an absolute 100% success rate in this matter - in the 26th and the 36th rounds statistics registers 10 out of 10. The team who led in these stages of the Primera division has reached the 3 points.
For the other options - draw or complete turn, there are 35 percent of the matches remaining in which at least once the ball is sent to the net. Spain's elite goal draws in the 2018-19 season are 83 - just over 23.5% of cases. In none of the 38 rounds did the Xs exceed the number of wins recorded by the teams that scored the first goal. We have only 3 rounds in which the number of goals draws is equal to the matches won by the team that scored first.
Even smaller is the proportion of so loved "spinner bets" - the numbers in the next sentences give a clear explanation of why the odds are so high. Only 40 matches in the Primera Division 18-19 ended with the success of the team that allowed the first goal of the match in their football door. This makes a little more than one complete turn on average per round, and as a percentage the "pancakes" make up just over 11% of the duels in which goals are scored. In the 14 rounds of the previous season in Spain there are no matches lost by the team that scored first. The only exception to the rule is the 12th round, in which 4 teams were able to make a turn after receiving the first goal, while the winners who scored first were 3.
England, Premier League, 2010-17
One season might not provide the most objective and true-to-average information. Then let's look at a larger period of time. We look at the 2010-17 interval in England - that is whole seven Premier League championships.
And there we find even more serious confirmation of the thesis that whoever scores first wins the match. In these 7 campaigns, which cover more than 2500 matches, we receive even clearer data in favor of the importance of the first goal. In 69% of cases where one team opens the result, the team wins the match. Goal draws are 19 percent - less than in the season in Spain, and meetings with the winner of this team that allowed the first goal, take almost the same share as in La Liga 2018-19 - 12% (even slightly higher).
Statistics vary depending on whether we are talking about a team in the Top 4, a team in the middle of the table or a drop-down. In teams at the top 1/5 in the rankings, wins with the first goal in their favor become a fact in 4/5 of the cases. Accordingly, when they lead, the top four clubs lose in only one of 16 such meetings (6.1%).
However, when we start to go down the table, the winning percentage for the team that opened the result decreases as the losses increase. And when we get to the drop-down zone, the teams in it have won just over 50% of the meetings they led. The duels in which a team scored first and then lost make up 1/5 of the cases.
Naturally, the household factor inevitably affects this equation. We are heading to the Premier League again, this time in a slightly narrower time span - 3 seasons (2014-17). In these over 1000 matches we see a difference in the data depending on whether the home team or the guest team has scored first. Teams that play on their own terrain win in almost 80% of the cases, speaking in total for all, without dividing them into favorites, middle teams or teams at the end of the tables. When the away team leads, then the probability of winning the match based on these statistics is just over 60%, and the chance of making a complete turnaround and lose - almost one in every five games. If the home team allows a first goal, more often there is a draw than if the there is a first goal for the team that play in front of their own audience.
This data clearly illustrates why "spinner bets" are so sought after by players - because they rarely happen, and payback when successful is always high. However, an interesting dependence has been found for live betting lovers over the period - teams that rank between 5th and 8th when they take the lead are a little more vulnerable.
Bulgaria, First League, 2018-19
As we said, numbers are hard to argue with, and statistics dispel a lot of myths. The "savvy" people of the Bulgarian football secrets wink and say that mostly "pancakes" are rotating in this championship. But the data shows otherwise. Let's take a more concise sample - like the one in Spain we choose the 2018-19 season of First League.
It turns out that in the first tier of Bulgaria the teams that win after they have led in the result are even more. For the entire championship (regular season + second phase in first six or second eight, without elimination playoffs), 219 matches have been registered with at least one goal scored. 166 of these games ended in victory for the team that scored first (75%), 34 finished with a draw (15%), and only 19 - or less than 10% went through a complete turn from the first hit to the final result.
If we break the championship into phases, we won't get a very different picture. In the regular season, the victories of the team that scored first in the match are 131 out of 172 matches (77%), and the team that allowed a first hit has been successful in 17 cases (again just under 10%). The second eight does not set a precedent - on the contrary, there is only one turnover in 22 matches where goals have been scored. That's less than 5% - the same ratio of turnovers in the first six (only 1 of 25 games that have not finished 0-0).
So, at least in terms of this kind of statistics, the Bulgarian championship is no different from the leading leagues in the world. We would even say that in the First League we notice even higher success rate of the team that was able to lead in the result.
Conclusion
The three examples presented above, although illustrated with accurate statistics, do not describe all possible options. But in general, the expected regularity of the importance of the first goal of the match is confirmed. The team that scores first usually wins. This logic is good to keep in mind with live bets. Yes, full turnovers provide some of the richest opportunities for profit, but that's just because they rarely happen. Finding success for a team that has allowed the first goal may still be a justified strategy when it comes to a favorite or a team at the top of the table. Accordingly, there is logic in betting on a team positioned at the end of the table who managed to lead in the result. But in both situations, although they is a higher probability rate, we are again talking for an exception of the rule.
