We are about to look at a not-so-well-grounded, but interesting strategy that applies to sports betting. The Monty Hall paradox is a probability system based on the correct guessing of events with three possible outcomes. The main goal is to increase the player's chance to 66.67% instead of the standard 33.33%. Whether this is practically possible, you can read in the article.
What is the paradox about?
Imagine you have three inverted cups in front of you - one is hiding a coin and the other two are empty. Your job is to guess where the coin is. In fact, the odds of this happening are equal to the standard 33.33%, or, to put it more simply, 1/3 of the probable outcomes.
We accept that you have selected cup # 1 (as the participants in Deal or No Deal choose a box) and rely on it. The organizer of the game is obliged, first of all, to turn one of the other two glasses - say - No. 3. However, it is empty, that is, the coin is hidden either in No. 1 or No. 2. And here is the paradox of Monty Hall, which has stirred resentment among professors and mathematicians.
If your choice is cup # 1 - your chances of success remain 33.33%, as it was in the beginning, but if you change your cup, that is, choose No. 2, then the probability of a winning outcome will increase to 66.66%. The reason for this "trick", according to the creator of the strategy, relies on the fact that the total odds of # 2 and # 3 are just that. But after turning the third glass, automatically # 2 acquires the total probability of both.
What the Monty Hall Paradox aims to show us
We cannot guess whether the strategy is justified , but it shows the gambling community an extremely valuable factor - reason. Most bettors are superstitious, follow pre-bet rituals and rely on intuition, which is utterly inappropriate and bordering on stupidity.
In order to achieve positive success rate and to gain significant profits, we must place the mathematical chances on the pedestal. It is necessary to carefully select the bet and calculate the real probability of winning it. Only when the chances are compared with the odds offered and they prove to be in favor of the bettor, action should be taken.
Criticism and rebuttal
The main reason for the discontent of critics and mathematicians is dictated by the fact that events with identical chances receive different percentages of probability. When one cup is turned over, the other two automatically get a 50% chance of execution. However, the Monty Hall paradox relies on the player's initial choice, that is, before one of the unprofitable cups is tipped over.
Overseas, argumentative analysis emerge that challenge the approach, and players in TV games like Deal or No Deal completely ignore Monty Hall and his position. Even research shows that only 13% of people tend to change their choice, which is indicative of the power of initial intuition.
Whether you rely on primal instinct or prefer sensible actions, think about this question before you start online betting.