Do you want to bet on football matches? In fact, if you read this, you're probably betting on football.

How did you perform last season? Do you keep statistics? If you do, we can assume that when you draw the line you will finally see that the resulting number starts with a minus.

You probably have some strong prognosis?

Wondering why this is happening? Usually because when you bet you are not evaluating the situation correctly, you are acting too risky or do not know what you are betting on. Here are some tips to help you stop wasting your money on football bets.

Never bet an amount you cannot afford to lose

This is the simplest rule, but also the most difficult to adhere to. Almost everyone has placed a bet at an amount he cannot afford to lose. Don't do it!

It is very easy to fall into the trap of your emotions - when you are in a long series of successful bets, your mind becomes clouded with adrenaline and you start to consider yourself mistakeless, or on the other hand – you have suffered a number of losing bets, the nerves take a peak and you try to wipe out all your losses with one huge bet. Don't do it!

This is the gambler's curse. Big bets after entering a winning streak are a surefire way to return every penny you earn to the bookmaker.

The safest way to enjoy your online betting is to think how much you can afford to lose. Do not bet the money that is set aside to pay rent or buy food during the week.

Whenever you place a bet, always consider how you would feel if the bet did not work out - if the feeling is very unpleasant then you have to drop the bet.

Stick to standard bets

If a friend convinces you that the only way to beat bookmakers is to use one of the odd and complex multi-bet combinations available, don't believe him. Bookmakers did not add them for you to get their money, but on the contrary - to get yours.

You must have heard the old Chinese saying "every journey begins in one small step". Apply it to your football bets - start with single bets. A small profit is a better option than any loss.

Bet on what you know

It's difficult enough to know the outcome of a football match in a familiar league that you try bet on teams you know absolutely nothing about. Don't be tempted to invest serious sums in the Mexican or Peruvian leagues simply because you have read an article about them.

Just by considering all the people involved in one match (ie players, coaches and referees), we see more than 30 variables (with reserves). This does not even include all other variables such as terrain, injuries, transfers, team morale, etc.

Exotic matches look exciting - until the bet loses. And once you find out (after the end of the match) that your team's top player has been given a break or that the goalkeeper has been injured, you will feel stupid. Bookmakers know - that's why they offered such a tempting rate.

The big odds are big for a reason

50.00 odds are not given randomly. As soon as the bookmaker is ready to give you £ 49 for each bet, this football team is, to say the least, not in a favorable position.

Of course, this does not mean that large odds never win. An example is the Leicester title of the 2015/16 season. They just don't happen often enough.

Including the bookmaker's profit and the fact that the higher the odds, the greater the "vig" of the house, the odds of this 50.00 odds are about 1%.

Always bet with value

How to calculate which match has worth?

Evaluate the likelihood of the liked events occuring.
See what the odds for it are.
Multyply the probabilty percentage by the odd.
When the result is 1.00 or greater, there is value in the stake!

Host factor

It is accepted that about half of all matches end with a home win, one quarter end with a draw and the last one quarter is at the expense of the away team. This applies to almost all professional leagues. Home advantage is a serious factor in football.

We can look at the last season of the Spanish Primera Division to illustrate what has been said:

Barcelona has won 16 of his 19 home games
Even Levante lost less than half of his home matches
12 teams have 9 or more home wins, only 4 teams have 8 or more winning away matches

We can look at the last season of the Spanish Primera Division to illustrate what has been said:

Barcelona has won 16 of his 19 home games
Even Levante lost less than half of his home matches
12 teams have 8 or more home wins, only 4 teams have 8 or more winning away matches

By crossing the "home shape"of the host and the "away shape", we can make an approximate distribution of forces - for example:

The host shape is 7-2-1 and the away shape is 1-3-6

What are the chances of each result based on these statistics:

Host = 7+6=13 from 20 games=65%
Equal=2+3=5 of 20 matches=25%
Away=1+1=2 of 20 matches=10%

Thus the fair odds can be calculated at 1.53-4.00-10.00

Of course, it's not that easy. As mentioned above, there are many other factors that influence football clashes.

Recent shape

Another popular method is to look at the recent shape of teams rather than the shape for the whole season. The idea is that a team that has been winning lately has gotten into a rhythm of the game and gained confidence ... while in the losing teams there is obviously something lame.

This is somewhat true - but there are other models - especially from mid-ranking teams that are, by definition, volatile. So if a middle team is in good or bad series, it would not be a surprise if you suddenly see them turn in the opposite direction.

Injuries / penalties

Injuries and penalties can have a big impact on a single game. Some players are more important than others, and as a general rule, absent defensive players exert more influence than absent players on offense, because in the defense, synchronization is very important and breaks down sharply with the exit of the best player, while for the strikers it is easier to substitute with another player.

Derby matches

Another complicating factor is the local derby. The matches between fierce opponents are different from the other matches and often the better team does not win. Arsenal vs Tottenham, Roma vs Lazio, Milan vs Inter, Cska vs Levski, Botev - Lokomotiv - just a tiny part of many similar derbies.

Other factors

There may be many other factors that tilt the scales in one direction or the other. For example, maybe one team played in Europe during the week and had a long trip, was in danger of falling out, some of the top players were absent, etc.

News sites can also help you with your bets. Coach fired? Has a star player left? Team experiencing financial difficulties?

Will the team be motivated by the news or the other way around? All these factors can and should be evaluated.

Choosing the right bookmaker

Where you place your bet is definitely important. Some bookmakers offer much better odds than others. Bet365, for example, qualifies as one of the bookies with the highest odds. From the Bookmakers section of our site you can read all the interesting things about four of the best bookmaker houses in the world. See also 10bet and betfair bonus offers.

If you want to find out which are the most successful football betting strategies, you can read our article "The Most Profitable Football Betting Strategies". See also: all bet365 bonuses and bet365 poker loyalty bonuses