Once you understand the basics of Asian handicap (if you have not - focus on Asian handicap types and importance first), it's time to come up with an appropriate strategy to apply to your Asian handicap markets.
In order to get the most out of Asian handicap bets, you need to adjust your mindset to the changed conditions that make the lines in the handicap.
We would encourage you to follow the tips below as a starting point for your Asian Handicap bets.
Analyze the two teams and the match in detail
This may sound like more than obvious advice, but you really need to familiarize yourself with all the circumstances surrounding the match you are going to bet on because the handicap markets are very specific.
Betting on Arsenal to beat Crystal Palace in the 1X2 market is much different than betting on them in -1.5 Asian Handicap goals.
You need to ask yourself the following questions:
- Is there important news around the Arsenal team?
- Can goal opportunities be expected to be limited due to limited to injuries to important players?
- Will the team have strong motivation for the match?
- Does Arsenal have an important game a few days after that?
Maybe Arsenal will have a decisive Champions League match just three days after that match. Do you really think that the Gunners or any other team in this situation would be pushing to score a second goal if they already lead by 1-0? Probably not, so the probability of having a handicap is very low. By the same token, the team could return from a heavy visit to Europe and be tired for this match. When players in a team are tired and powerless, they try to win in the most energy-efficient way possible.
All this information must be taken into account before placing your bets. You can quickly find that you have changed your original mind and you already think the value is in the Crystal Palace bet with a +1.5 virtual head advantage – even when Arsenal wins the match with one goal difference, your bet will still be profitable.
Opposite the leader strategy in live betting
A proven strategy that often brings success to our team is to place bets on the losing team in live football betting.
It is common knowledge that when a team takes the lead in a football game, they are more likely to allow the next goal. This is due to several different reasons - the teams that are leading subconsciously begin to play with less motivation, and at the same time losing teams begin to attack more and show a greater desire to win.
Here's an example of using this strategy in a live match:
Middlesbrough 1-0 Stoke City (30 'minutes)
The odds for the Asian Handicap Market at 0.25 at the moment were as follows:
- Middlesbrough -0.25 = 1.95 odd
- Stoke City +0.25 = 1.75 odd
- Here we would be tempted to bet on Stoke City +0.25 (first, we need to remind you that Asian Live Handicap markets operate on the basis that the result is currently 0: 0 - that is, looking just what happens by the end of the match).
- Stoke City were very likely to push and score the next goal, even if they did not and the result was the same, half of the bet would have been returned. And in the end, the match ended with a score of 1: 1.
- You need to put in some logic and make predictions for the match development and you should use matches that are between equal teams for the purpose of the strategy - do not apply it to matches between top teams against teams at the bottom of the table!
- You will not enjoy particularly high odds using this strategy, but at least your success rate is expected to be high.
Do not look at the AH odds before making a match analysis
We always advise people to judge the match before looking at the odds of handicap lines. You should always evaluate the matches and get an idea of what result you expect to get before checking the odds - this is especially important for Asian handicap bets.
If you don't listen to us, you will often be misled by the odds and handicap lines. You can see that Manchester United gets a low odd against MK Dons in the League Cup at AH -2.5, but that does not mean that the Red Devils will be able to cover the line.
Find the "fake favorites" and bet against them with an Asian handicap
Another great way to get the most out of Asian handicap markets is to find fake favorites and bet on their opponents.
As the Asian Handicap is made to balance the matches, if you can find a favorite that is overrated by bookmakers, you can use this as your advantage and bet on the outsider at +0.5 AH - which means that if the favorite fails to win, bet is profitable.
An example of such bets could be opposing the big teams (Bayern, Chelsea, Juventus, etc.) in matches where they have nothing to play for - for example, end-of-season duels against teams struggling to survive or to win a place in Europe.
Bookmakers give low rates to big teams regardless of the motivation factor, but at some points they can be classified as "fake favorites".
The value is sometimes with the favorites
While the tips above have shown you different ways to use outsider bets in Asian handicap markets, this does not mean that value can only be found in them. You don't always have to miss -1.5 or -2 handicaps when there are teams of really different sizes.
If you get a good odd of -2 AH for Barcelona or Real Madrid against a team from the bottom of the table, this is almost always a good bet, because these teams often defeat similar opponents.
