Although online betting has significantly broadened the horizon for players in terms of the types and number of predictions that can be made on sporting events, the largest percentage of predictions are still directed to the final outcome of a football match. We will look at several possible strategies that can be followed in the search for an overall positive balance with the well-known positions 1, X, 2.
Firmly in favor of the favorite
When we bet on a team that wins more than half of its matches and it is a champion or is fighting for the title in its championship, the chances of a successful bet are always great. But in that case the profit is lower. For favorites like Barcelona, Liverpool, Juventus or PSG, the odds of winning their domestic league games are low - almost always in the range of 1.40 to 1.20, sometimes even less. It is necessary for the predictions to be successful in at least 2/3 of the cases so we can get above zero, and sometimes the predictions need to be successful even more often.
Example:
We choose to bet on Barcelona winning every match of the Spanish Primera Division. In home games, the odd often falls below 1.20, with away games it is around 1.40. We exclude from this strategy the derbies with Real (Madrid) and Atletico (Madrid), since with them the chance of success for Barca is smaller. Respectively, the odd is higher and well worth it, but such matches do not exactly fit into this strategy. We select 30 "sure" matches for Barcelona during the season, for each of them we put £ 10 - a total of 300 within the entire championship. At a conditionally average odd of 1.30, each guessed position carries £ 13. If we are 100 percent right, we will accumulate around £ 390, i.e. net profit of £ 90 on an annual basis. However, if we guess less than 23-24 victories of Barcelona, it is likely that we will generate a negative balance.
From the example described, it is clear that a bet on a solid favorite does not yield much return, at least not on a single. A safe game probably would have brought us losses. But what if we play columns with favorites? Many players have been tempted over the years to pursue such a strategy, but it rarely brings success.
Indeed, when multiplying couple of odds with values between 1.20 and 1.40, they already accumulate a profit of about 2 to each betted unit. Yes, but in that case even one mistake is enough for the whole column to collapse. In order to compensate for the minimal risks, systems are sought but they increase the number of columns and thus the amount to be bet. From what has been written so far, it is clear that a strategy with lasting play in favor of the favorite cannot be relied on to earn serious profit. However, persistence can at least maintain a good budget which can be used to pursue higher odds.
The Xs always promise good profits
Open any draw at any date at any bookmaker and compare the odds for an even result. It is almost impossible to find a stake below 2.50, and for most of the duels the potential win exceeds 3 to 1. Given that each match starts with an even result, the lookout for an X sounds like a pretty good opportunity. But succeeding is not as easy as it might seem at first glance.
Option 1: Draws in 8-10 games each week
With this strategy you can identify a championship which has a high percentage of draws. If at least 25-30 percent of the duels end without a winner, then that league does the job. We look at the situation towards the middle of the 2019-20 season in Europe and in the top 5 championships there are none that exceed 30% - closest to this value is the Spanish La Liga. In this situation, we are targeting championships and divisions in which we can find the desired frequency of the draw:
- Spain, Segunda Division
- France, League 2
- Germany, Second Bundesliga
- England, League 1 (Third Division)
If 1 of 3 games ends in a draw, then we can write Xs at all matches of the round. If we confirm the average result and with odds over 3.00 we will get our money back and we can even score a profit.
Example:
We bet £ 5 on 9 matches from the Second Bundesliga - our investment is £ 45. Three matches end in a draw with an average odd of about 3.00 - that brings us about £ 45. I.e. with 1/3 success in the predictions we are at zero and any correct prediction above that already brings us a profit.
Such a strategy can eliminate a clear favorite match. In it, the odd for a draw would be more than 4.00, but the chances of success are lower.
Option 2: We are looking for a team that often registers an X position
Again, we use statistics as an aid. We choose a team where we notice a tendency to finish in a draw often - at least in 1 out of every 3 games. And we bet an X on our chosen team in each successive round of the championship. If we do not change the stake amount, i.e. every time we play with £ 5, a minimum profit can be accumulated. However, if we use a progressive system for the betted amounts, this will already guarantee us an almost sure plus.
Example:
We like Empoli from Series B of Italy, which after 19 rounds recorded 8 draws - over 40% of the matches of this team have finished with a draw. We start with £ 2 and with success of the odd of 2.50 (the minimum for an equal result, lower than that amount is extremely rare occurrence) we collect £ 5. If we lose, we double the bet in the next match - £ 4, which will bring a minimum of 10, and this profit will compensate the first loss. If we lose in the second match as well, we double the bet again at £ 8, which can bring at least £ 20.
And so we follow the team in each round, and with a successful prognosis we return to the starting position, and in case of a loss - we double. Seems like a sure win, doesn't it? Don't rush, it's not as beautiful as it seems. With Empoli, the draw percentage is over 40, but that doesn't mean it will necessarily end with an X in every 2 out of 5 games you play. It is possible for the team to enter a long series of wins and losses without registering a single draw. If a series of matches without an even result exceeds 5, it already begins to weigh you down, as you have accumulated losses and with them lots of nerves because of the failure. You have to plan really well, because with a logic like this, when you reach match # 7, you have to already put £ 128 on a single, and if there are no draws in 9 matches, then in the tenth one the bet should already be over £ 1000!
Guest team betting
Even talking about the favorites, the odds of their success on a foreign terrain are higher than the odds against the same opponent in front of their audience. But it has already been said that the stakes with the leaders in the respective league are still rarely above 1.50. So we set them aside and head to the next most powerful teams - those at the foot of the top. We are looking for a team that wins often enough in a foreign terrain, but also makes mistakes - this guarantees us an odd of about 2.00 (in the range 1.70-3.00) depending on the opponent. An example is Bayer Leverkusen in Germany, which by the middle of the 2019-20 season has recorded 5 wins from 8 away games, but is still at 6th place due to its more volatile results in home games. This gives us reason to place position 2 every time Leverkusen plays away (or to another team with similar statistics). With a success rate of 40-50% on foreign terrain and at stakes exceeding 2.00 for most meetings, we have a good chance of winning with such a strategy. Of course, several such teams (between 3 and 5) can be selected to alternate the weeks in which we are betting and to be more successful in the predictions.
Home team betting
Home team bettingQuite a few teams owe their survival in the elite leagues of Europe (and not only) mainly to the asset they accumulate in front of their audience. We target teams in the middle or even in the bottom half of the table where we find that they win over 50% of their home games and at the same time get points at away games. Here is a more exotic example - the Greek OFI. The Crete team is very successful on their own terrain (6 wins from 9 games until the end of 2019), but since the overall balance is rather negative, the odds for 1 in OFI home games rarely fall below 2.00. With a success rate of over 60%, as is the case, this is a promise for a long-term profit.
The strategies listed above do not exhaust the possibilities for well-planned betting on different positions for football matches. Each of these methods has its weaknesses, and most important of all is to set budget limits so that we do not fall into the deep spiral of losses, even when there are prolonged unsuccessful series.
