Handicap bets are one of the most popular ways to place bets nowadays. There are two main reasons for this:
- With handicap bets you can win a lot more by betting on the favorites, as the odds are much higher.
- With handicap bets, you can support the outsider if you think he is not that much weaker than the favorite, but may still lose by a small margin.
The end result for a handicap bet is adjusted by subtracting or adding the amount of the handicap. The result after this adjustment is used to settle the bets.
Handicaps are used to make bets more attractive by balancing the chances of participating teams or players in a sporting event, as well as allowing bettors to make their predictions of the result more accurate. Statistics show that handicap bets are used the most in matches where there is a significant difference in the balance of power. The handicap helps to balance the odds of both teams or players.
Let's take a closer look at what is the so called European handicap that has three possible outcomes, as opposed to an Asian handicap in which the number of outcomes is reduced to two.
There is a football match between Everton and Sunderland. Bookmakers and players alike agree that Everton is a big favorite in this clash and much more likely to win. Due to the difference in balance of power, the bookmaker Sportingbet suggested the following odds for the outcome of the meeting:
- 1 - 1.40
- X - 4.15
- 2 - 7.75
Everton's expected win is estimated at 1.40, but that is not enough incentive for fans to place a bet. However, some bettors are convinced that the Caramels can win by a bigger margin, that is, with at least two goals ahead. Guided by these expectations, bettors tend to place a bet with two or more goals difference at a higher odds. You see the need to give a virtual advance as a result of one team, in this case, to Sunderland.
If the match ends 3-1 for the home side, betting on Everton will be profitable because even after adding Sunderland's virtual lead of 1 goal, the result is 3-2. Also, a bet on Everton will also be winning at 3-0 or any other result where the home side have won by two or more goals difference.
But what happens if Everton wins with just one hit in advance? When we use the European Handicap, the winning bet for this market will be equal.
When to bet with a negative European handicap?
The obvious answer to this question is when one of the two teams is visibly better than the other. You have to watch not only how the two teams performed in their last championship games, but also the previous direct matches between them from this and the past seasons. There are many cases of teams that simply find a way to fail against certain rivals and regularly deliver serious results.
The stronger one team is than the other, the larger the handicap you can afford to use. For example, if Barcelona plays against Osasuna, there is no reason why you should not expect the Catalans to beat their opponent by 3 or 4 goals difference. Barcelona and Real Madrid are two of the teams that rarely stop and regularly win with huge differences.
There are some teams that, after scoring one or two goals, just stop playing and wait for the last referee signal to come. It is not a good idea to bet handicap on such teams. Still others, like the hegemons in Spain, try to entertain their fans to the end and deliver new and new goals.
Definitely an important incentive for players to try to score as many goals as possible is home play. When a team plays in front of their own audience, they usually do not want to disappoint their fans with 30 minutes of football and 60 minutes of waiting for the end of the game to arrive. When a favorite plays as a guest, he does not see much of his own supporters in the stadium and does not have that much motivation.
Also, when the match is important to the team, it is more likely to look for a bigger difference in the game development to eliminate the risk of a late chance goal. As good as one team is, it can never be sure that its opponent will not be able to score in perhaps his only position in the match. Therefore, with the increase of the stake of the meeting, the desire of the favorite to win an early lead, which eliminates the risk of a late turn, increases proportionally.
There are other factors that make teams look for a big difference. For example, when a team has a new coach, players try to show their best face in the first games to impress him, which leads to an increased desire to score goals. Also, when one of the favorites in the championship failed in the previous round, he in most cases would try to defeat his opponent in the next round to show that the collapse in last game was accidental and he is still the favorite in the championship. And, of course, to compensate its fans.
When to bet with a positive European handicap?
Reread the lines above and, when the situation is fundamentally opposite to what has been explained, it is better to bet on the outsider with a positive European handicap.
Imagine the following situation: the season is over, and both teams have nothing to fighgt for, the home team is guaranteed the title, and the guest is placed in the golden environment, and the players on both teams are tired. Will the favorite rush to win in this situation?
Another example: the favorite has a major Champions League match three days after today's match. Will he try to chase a big win or will he try to take the three points with as little strain as possible?
Be sure to check out our tips for the other major handicap type as well - Asian Handicap Strategies.
